Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
