Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
